There’s another way to measure Ohio. According to analyst Adrian Gray, as of last Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted in advance polls. That’s down 181,275 from the Obama wave four years ago. And 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early. That’s up 75,858 from the last presidential election. ezra
I have money out on Romney winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College. It was not placed using any particularly sophisticated analysis; just on the general sense that voters were growing disenchanted with Obama. And that was before the first debate and Benghazi.
I am pretty sure my popular vote money is safe. And looking at the size of the rallies Romney is putting together in Ohio, Colorado and today in Pennsylvania, the Electoral College is looking more doable.
The question of voter enthusiasm is, of course, hard to measure. However, the stat Ez cites above is interesting. The Democrats have a good ground organization in Ohio. They try to make sure that their locked in voters get to the early polls (cynics would say, so that they can come back on Election Day and vote again). They are down about 30% from the last election.
I think that reflects “fade”. The black people and the poor people and the kids who were energized by Obama’s last run are, not unreasonably, a bit disappointed, a bit less enamoured, a bit less excited this go round. They still like Obama and they still support him; but actually voting for him has fallen down the list of priorities.
Over in the middle and on the right last elections’ inclination to give the black guy the benefit of the doubt has given way to anger and frustration with four years of flailing, lackadaisical, governance. Four years ago people suspected that Obama might not be competent, now the suspicion has given way to certainty.
My pal Kevin Michael Grace is calling it 53-46 for Romney. I suspect he has it about right on popular vote. Just how many Obama leaners stay home will determine the Electoral College counts. I expect the Republicans are praying for rain in the Rust Belt – according to the forecast they are not going to get it. I don’t think they will need it.