I have been saying the wheels on the climate bus have been falling off since 2008. Now we’re down to the rims:
FV: They certainly find themselves in a serious jam. That‘s why they are now trying to gain time by claiming that the models first become falsified if there has been no warming over a period of 30 years – never mind that the warming of 1977 to 1998 was only 22 years and deemed to be long enough to “prove“ the CO2 theory. A few years ago climate scientist Ben Santer said only 17 years were necessary before we could talk about a real climate trend. Now that reality is pulling the rug from under models, some scientists are having misgivings. Some are praying for an El Nino year, which would allow them to beat the drums of fear again. They’ll hype up every single weather effect to get attention. Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt- no tricks zone
And from Canada’s own Ross McKitrick we have this rather perfect graph:
First, something big is about to happen. Models predict one thing and the data show another. The various attempts in recent years to patch over the difference are disintegrating. Over the next few years, either there is going to be a sudden, rapid warming that shoots temperatures up to where the models say they should be, or the mainstream climate modeling paradigm is going to fall apart. financial post
As the observed climate diverges from the models the “science” based on the models will become less and less plausible. While the warmists try to pretend that the models are somehow not central to the science, the reality is that every scare scenario relies heavily on models which are no longer working.
When the IPCC releases its much leaked AR5 in a couple of weeks we will see the last media hurrah and then the final collapse of climate alarmism. The body will twitch for a decade with every snow storm and heat wave pressed to serve the cause; but the policy makers and politicians will no longer be confronted with a monolithic wall of consensus science. Instead they will realize that they have been taken for a ride.
The public already knows AGW is a crock and they are damned angry as their energy bills rise to pay for useless solutions to a non-problem.