UKIP

There is nothing I like better than watching the smug bastards of the consensus parties having their heads handed to them.

UKIP and our Nigel have done that in the EU elections.

Now, how does this play out in English politics? Well, if there was any doubt Nick Clegg was done this pretty much puts paid to it. Cameron? Not so much. If he is bright enough to realize that UKIP is Reform to his PC’s. He can be Mulroney or he can be Kim Campbell.

For Ed the question is a bit different. Labour did ok. Won Council seats, has MEPs. The problem Ed has is that everyone know he had next to nothing to do with such success as Labour had. With UKIP potentially splitting the Conservative vote, the next election is Labour’s to win. Unless Ed is such a dud that UKIP can take seats from them.

The Reform Party crashed on the ramparts of the dullards of Ontario. UKIP is being shut out of London and the inner cities of England. For Cameron the hope is that, comehow, the metroland people will vote Tory and the immigrants will vote Labour and it will all turn out OK.

The collapse of the Liberal Democrats actually helps Cameron because Clegg has no leverage left. Cameron can and should tell Vince Cable and Ed Davey to stuff their looney ideas. Will he?

For Farage the challenge will be to keep the loonies if not out then quiet. The UK media gunned for him throughout the campaign and will be pissed that he managed nearly 30% of the vote despite their best efforts. The bien pensant, basically Annex dwellers with British accents and way more money, will attempt to paint UKIP in racist, homophobic, anti-feminist colours.

The question in the next year is whether any of that will have any traction outside the leafier reaches of London.

Farange has something Preston Manning never did: he is fun to watch. He does not take himself terrifically seriously with a fag in one hand and a pint in the other. I suspect that populist, bloke in the pub, appeal will do him well come the next British election. He is the answer to the age old voter question “who would you like to have a beer with?” Because Nigel will buy the first round and is already a couple to the good.

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