Huma is dumping Weiner. Yes, well, noise.

The silly season in the US election is drawing to its Labour Day close and Trump is within hailing distance of Hillary. The polls are tightening but I don’t think that actually matters.

If this indeed a “Change” election the polls are not going to matter much because they will consistently measure the wrong thing: people who have voted before. If Trump is going to win he needs to pull people who have rarely or never voted. And he is going to have to pull people, mainly black, who have never voted Republican before.

Can he do it? Getting those people to the polls is not about a “ground game” or state by state organization. It is about a fundamental shift in the US electorate.

If this election turns out to be people who voted before voting again Hilly wins in a walk. A landslide.

I think it will be a landslide. I am just unsure as to which part of the mountain is coming down.

People talk a lot of nonsense about “preference cascades”. The moment where people say “Hilly really is a crook.” or “Trump is completely insane” and vote accordingly. But a preference cascade can work the other, positive, way: “Hillary will keep us on track”, “The Donald will keep us safe.” The negative cascade is more likely to keep voters at home, the positive will motivate them to get out and vote.

My sense is that a low turnout virtually guaranties a Clinton victory. Unless Trump can put new voters in the booth he loses. Can he?

A few good rallies and a set of really clever, and likely nasty debates, and he might. Hilly is playing defence. Hiding from the press, staging events, letting her surrogates in the media take the fight to Trump. At some point this will get real and Hillary is going to have to go toe to toe with Trump. When that happens we’ll see how fast on his feet Trump is. If he is quick, if he can land more than a few punches while still being a gentleman, the landslide goes his way.

Hillary wins if she dances out of reach. My take is she doesn’t have the footwork.


One thought on “Noise

  1. derek says:

    It will be decided in the last week. Very forcefully either way, and if someone thinks they can predict it, good luck.

    My prediction from about a year ago was that Hillary would lose and then become spokesperson for some mixture of chemical and mechanical bodily function enhancement, a la Bob Dole.

    If there is one issue that will decide the election it is stamina. Trump seems to have the advantage, but when he is tired the lack of rote preparation creates problems. In an odd way the Republican primary debate schedule was a war of attrition, and he won. I’m sure Hillary and campaign are well aware of this and will try to control it. She has health problems, the extraordinary deflect strategy last week confirms it. A simple no would suffice if it were true.

    Another thing to watch is the vacuum. This is the political and social issue of our time. The Democrats are strategizing a personal destruction campaign, well under way. Any Hillary policy proposals which would garner attention will be criticisms of Obama, which from the media and political establishment standpoint is not to be mentioned. And much of it is tired old stuff anyways.

    Trump oddly has the advantage here, and public debate will be between the commentariat and Trump, with Hillary trying to skate above it all. That could go dramatically either way, default Clinton with low numbers or an increasingly engaged populace willing to stick it to the secular priesthood in the media. Again, this is how Trump won the primaries. The ‘Sniffy Conservatives’ managed to alienate a very large number of Republicans. Watch for him eliciting the same scorn for common people from the commentariat. Especially for blacks who would consider leaving the reservation.

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