Tightening

Rasmussen has Hillary a point behind Trump in its daily tracking poll. The LA Times tracking poll has Trump ahead 45 to 42.

Neither of these polls matter much in the grand scheme but they suggest that Trump is staying even with Hilly. And neither reflects the impact of Trump’s trip to Mexico where, dare one say it, he looked pretty darned Presidential.

Now, take a look at what Hilly has coming up. You can find her schedule at https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/. But when you look at this schedule something jumps out at you. Hillary herself is “at work” for exactly four days during the month of September. Two Labour Day gigs, the Commander in Chief’s Forum (billed as a debate but, in fact, back to back appearances by Trump and Hilly – they are not on stage at the same time), a speech to the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation on the 17th and the first Presidential debate on the 26th.

Sophisticated pundits, pollsters and consultants will, no doubt, explain that in the modern era, a candidate does not have to get out and press the flesh. Baby kissing, big rallies, voter enthusiasm are all subordinate to big data, targeted media buys and GOTV efforts. Hillary can pretty much sit on her front porch and knit while her seamless campaign drives every last college educated white suburban woman in America and every black person in America to the polls to ensure Hilly’s victory.

Which is a scenario which would be a lock if a) Hillary was liked as a candidate, b) if there are no downside surprises for Hilly between now and November 8, c) if Trump can be counted on to keep tripping over his own shoe laces. We know that “a” has never been the case and apparently, even among women she’s slipping:

Notably, Clinton’s popularity among women has flipped from 54-43 percent favorable-unfavorable last month to 45-52 percent now; it’s the first time in a year that most women have viewed her unfavorably. abc

No downside surprises? Not likely. Some of the emails Clinton said were not “work related” – about 15,000 of them – have been recovered by the FBI. 30 of these are apparently about Benghazi and those contain information sensitive enough to require redacting before being released. So, there is a surprise for certain. There are likely lots more.

Trump? I suspect he’ll continue with the pratfalls. But, at the same time, he is running a very high energy campaign. He is out there in swing states, in deep red states and in deep blue states pretty much every day. He likes rallies and has a lot of them. He looks very much like he is running for President.

Staying close to Hilly, being within the margin of error coming out of the Labour Day weekend is the minimum Trump had to have to be in contention. It looks like he’s got it.

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