The polls are trickling in after Hilly’s really bad, just awful weekend.
Leave aside the headline numbers where Trump is ahead; what is more interesting is the fact that Trump is anywhere close to Clinton at this stage in the race. She is massively outspending him, has most of elite media on her side and she still is not closing the sale.
I said a while ago that my sense is that this is going to be a landslide election. Not a point or two and ten electoral college votes, more like 5-9 points and a hundred EC votes.
The problem Hilly has is that she was supposed to be inevitable. Particularly against Trump. If inevitable slips to somewhat likely a fair number of undecided voters will take another look. Both candidates have strong negatives but Trump’s are pretty much a matter of record. Hillary is just piling negative on top of negative. After all, anyone can get sick, but it takes Hillary to pass out, avoid the hospital and then announce she’s got pneumonia two days after the alleged diagnosis. That simply looks sketchy.
The email leaks are not helping either. Colin Powell pretty clearly does not like the woman and thinks she was pretty abusive trying to pin her email misdeeds on Powell. The DNC pretty clearly sold ambassadorships for donations. None of this is a smoking gun and none of it is fatal; but it adds up to a picture of a candidate who is more than a little untrustworthy.
Part of this election is going to be about who shows up. Trump supporters, in all their old, white, middle class, deplorableness are very enthusiastic. They will show up. Will Hilly’s supporters show up?
The last two Presidential elections saw a black man attract huge black support. Will Hilly have the same success with black voters? I can’t help but be a bit skeptical. Will the nice suburban, Kate Spade carrying, college educated ladies show up en masse for Hilly? Perhaps, but the question of trustworthiness is significant for this group.
Landslides are sometimes the result of enthusiasm and sometimes the result of indifference. Hilly has to scare the bejesus out of her supporters so they will make the effort to show up. Trump makes an excellent bogyman but is he scary enough? I don’t think he is.
The first debate is going to be Yuge. Trump has to walk the line between defeating Hilly and bullying her. If he comes off as a bully he loses, if he behaves like a gent he’ll go a long way toward eliminating the bully image. My bet is that he knows that and will be charming as he points out that Hillary lied to congress, lied to the FBI, should be charged with obstruction of justice, gave us ISIS and watched from the sidelines as four Americans died in Benghazi. It will be fun to watch.