Did Trump Close the Deal?

The frenzy of last minute polling in the US Presidential race is suggesting that Trump is even or pulling ahead in several key states. Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Ohio are all in play.

“In play” is not, of course, “in the bag” and the fabled Democratic Party ground operation and saturation advertising may very well deny Trump some or all of these states and many more. Hilly is awful but the Democratic Party may have the organizational capacity – and enough cheating capacity – to, in Obama’s words today in Detroit “carry her”. So it is a reasonable bet that Clinton should be able to win tomorrow.

Unless…Well the polls could very well be wrong. The polling models may well under represent Trump support and over represent Hilly’s. There is no doubt at all that Trump sees more people at his rallies. But does that mean anything?

Hillary’s message throughout the campaign has been that Trump is unfit, racist and not the sort of person America would be safe with. She has cited her own experience and what she seems to think is her better temperment. She has a mountain of detailed policy as one would expect from a front of the class sort of girl.

Trump’s message has been a bit broader – yes, Hilly is a crook; but the whole damned system is rigged. He offers some simple solutions to fairly complex problems. Build the Wall, drop taxes, super vet immigrants from know terrorist areas. But none of that is actually what Trump is selling.

“Make America Great Again” is not so much a policy as a point of view. If you think America has been diminished – economically, geo-politically, culturally – in the last eight years then Trump is offering a direction change. Hillary is not.

Trump’s pitch has two parts: you have to buy into the idea that America is not doing well and you have to believe that Trump somehow represents a useful change of direction. For Trump to close the deal he has to find enough people who believe both parts and those people have to show up and vote.

America is in roughish shape after eight years of Obama. Geo-politically Obama, and his two Secretaries of State, Clinton and Kerry, are leaving America with significantly diminish stature and authority in many parts of the world. Economically, the echos of the 2008 crash are still with us. However, rough shape is not a total disaster. This is not America in 1932:

By inauguration day—March 4, 1933—most banks had shut down, industrial production had fallen to just 56 percent of its 1929 level, at least 13 million wage earners were unemployed, and farmers were in desperate straits. britannica

So are things bad enough for the first part of the #MAGA message to resonate. As with most things, it depends on where you are and who you are. If you are black and living in a city you are certainly no better off than you were eight years ago. If you are white and live in a flyover state you have not had a great eight years (said Bill Clinton at a 2015 closed fundraiser – thank you WikiLeaks). Small businesses have more regulation to deal with and large busineses are finding it more efficient to keep their international profits offshore. A lot of jobs have disappeared and they are not coming back.

Is that enough? I think it may just be. If this is a “change” election there have to be enough people who are miserable enough to actually get out and vote for change. People who remember when they and their kids had jobs and America won the wars it fought.

For Trump to close the deal he has to begin with that miserable base and  then add to it. There are plenty of people who, while they are gainfully employed and still have healthcare, are worried about the deficit, the inability of America to gain good international outcomes, the seemingly endless “nod and wink” corruption in Washington. Socially these are people who would be embarassed to say they were voting for Trump. They may not even say it out loud to themselves. But they are out there – or at least Trump has to hope they are. These are the people who can tip battleground states Trump’s way.

Tomorrow we find out. The left media are predicting a Clinton victory and some of the loonier publications are suggesting a landslide for Hilly. I don’t think there is any landslide potential for the Clinton camp. They might, if everything breaks just right, be able to claim a lopsided Electoral College victory but they don’t seem to have the raw numbers for a landslide.

Neither does Trump. Except. Well I am watching Ted Nuget warming up the crowd in Grand Rapids. Fresh out of deer camp and in camo. It’s about midnight. The room is packed. Ted is rocking it. 4500 people in the room. 51,000 online on YouTube. Lord knows how many on Facebook. Those are actual numbers. Earlier tonight Jon Bon Jovie and Bruce Srpinsteen opened for Hilly. They had 15,ooo in the room and about 10K online. Trump hit a combined You-Tube and Facebook of over 200K.

That’s the landslide. If those actual people show up Trump wins bigly.

I think they will.

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11 thoughts on “Did Trump Close the Deal?

  1. Terry Rudden says:

    I truly am enjoying your brave little bubble. And I realize that challenging you to defend those late night barroom scribbles on cocktail napkins that you generously refer to as his “policies” (“Ban all Muzzies! No? Okay, ban SOME Muzzies! Build a wall! Cancel our trade policies!”) would be as cruel as challenging a cheerleader to provide caloric metrics to confirm that her chosen team is, indeed, “red hot”.

    What’s interesting from a sales and marketing perspective (which is Trump’s only actual area of modest competence) is the strategy of inverting strengths and weaknesses. Trump’s inability to maintain a cohesive campaign team or strategy are somehow more “virtuous” than Clinton’s well managed campaign. Trump’s alienation from the party whose support he’s going to need to govern, the collapse of his funding, his repudiation by most conventional Republican sources of support – these are all signs of his success, as opposed to the Democrat’s post convention closing of the ranks and unification behind Clinton.

    Fortunately, Trump’s advocates have spent most of their energy over the last weeks talking to the themselves. You did well and bravely, and tomorrow you can switch from aggrieved patron of the oppressed outsider to aggrieved victim of Grand Conspiratorial Fraud. That’ll be fun for you – not much of change, actually, but maybe you can take on vaccines or contrails for a little variety.

    • derek says:

      We will see tonight.

      I still can’t figure out why people like you tolerate corruption. In BC we drummed a popular premier out of office because he did private business in the Premier’s office.

      A promising Conservative politician was driven from a powerful position in government because he left his briefing papers in a briefcase at his girlfriend’s apartment.

      For that reason we have reasonably good government in Canada.

      I don’t think Hillary will win. I suspect that her vast and deep support will forget to vote.

      • Terry Rudden says:

        “I still can’t figure out why people like you tolerate corruption.”

        I can’t figure out what you mean by “people like me” (have we met?), or “tolerate”. In my views, Ms. Clinton’s flaws are real and many, as are Mr. Trump’s. I personally think Canada’s best interests are served by the continuation of a serviceable status quo in the American government. Put simply, ethically compromised competence in government is preferable to ethically compromised gross incompetence.

  2. Dwayne says:

    I feel that a Trump presidency will be put under a microscope like no other before. That is good for their democracy. In Canada we have seen the gross corruption of the media with its sycophantic tongue bathing of Trudeau vs its straight up hatred of Harper. A balance would be better, but a Clinton presidency will be treated like the Obama terms, with deference and literary cunnilingus (instead of fellatio for a change). I don’t think that she will last 4 years either, there seems to be too many skeletons making their way out of the Wikileaks, and even a tainted DoJ and FBI will not be able to stop the calls for impeachment, much like Nixon.

    Nope, a smart electorate would vote for Trump and then pin him to the office with the Senate and the House. The press would question every move and appointment, the Dems would not work with him, and half the Republicans wouldn’t either. You want 4 years of status quo, that would be Donald because he would have a hard time finding allies in the swamp.

    • Terry Rudden says:

      No, I didn’t quite mean the status quo created by Republicans who declared Obama “the worst president EVER” the day after his inauguration – the folks who declared that their goal was to ensure his failure. It was all very reminiscent of a little kid calling her mom “the WORST MOMMY EVER!”, and a good introduction to the mindset that thinks that political skills are evil in politicians.

      • Dwayne says:

        Prescient of them. President pen and phone. How is that Guantanamo Bay thing going? Affordable Care Act, snort… Russians seem pretty confident. The Middle East is a shambles, yup, worst president ever. And if their goal was to ensure he failed then good on them, they met their goal! And why would the Republicans even want to help the man who said, “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,” Obama said in Philadelphia last night. “Because from what I understand, folks in Philly like a good brawl. I’ve seen Eagles fans.” this was his ’08 attitude.

    • Terry Rudden says:

      You guys really, truly DON’T get tired of being lied to, do you? And you really don’t hesitate about passing lies along, even when you know.

      Bonni, that video is entitled “Hillary Clinton booed offstage on the last day of campaign by Latinos in los angeles.” Which is really weird, because, of course, Hillary Clinton wasn’t IN Los Angeles on the last day of the campaign.

      This video was first circulated in May of this year. Clinton was attending a fifth of May celebration, and stopped briefly to apologize to those in the crowd who weren’t able to into the rally itself. She was loudly heckled by two Bernie Sanders supporters, whom she pretty much ignored, and then she left.

      Nice try. Well, no, not really.

      • bonnibrai says:

        Thanks Terry,that explains why she looks a bit healthier there.That would be around this time I’ll wager. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1NhtqEHirs

      • bonnibrai says:

        “Fortunately, Trump’s advocates have spent most of their energy over the last weeks talking to the themselves. You did well and bravely, and tomorrow you can switch from aggrieved patron of the oppressed outsider to aggrieved victim of Grand Conspiratorial Fraud. That’ll be fun for you – not much of change, actually, but maybe you can take on vaccines or contrails for a little variety” Just to show there are no hard feelings http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.html Cheers

  3. Jay Currie says:

    bonnibrai, I fear that Terry will not be the only chap in Canada needing a good recipe for crow.

    And, why yes, it does feel awesome to be right about how America was going to renovate itself. Not a landslide, just enough.

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