High farce, shenanigans and treason

The breathless revelations that Michael “not a consigliere” Cohen recorded his phone call(s) to Trump to discuss buying the rights to a Playmate’s tell all about the Donald were trumped by the rumour that Mueller was going to subpoena testimony from a famous New York Madame who was tied up in the Elliot Spitzer scandal and once worked for the very creepy Roger Stone. Special Counsel Mueller, unable to find any connection between Trump and Russians, has opted for the endless delights of exposing the seamy underbelly of the Big Apple. He’ll be busy for years with the “gotcha” just around another New York City corner. Some curmudgeons are complaining about the cost of Mueller’s Special Counsel sitcom. Not this one, I think the American People are getting great value for money. Entire television series have had less plot and fewer doubtful characters than the Mueller show and I, for one, am very grateful.

The serious minded, front of the room, kids do have a point that Mueller is serving as a distraction from the investigation of the previous administration’s abuse of the Intelligence Community, the DOJ and the FBI in the small matter of the assorted FISA Court applications for surveillance on minor Trump operatives. Which is true; but it is also largely irrelevant. Unlike the “Trump colluded with the Russians” farce, there are facts of the matter in the FISA case and general abuse of process by the last administration and those facts have been committed to paper. That exposing those facts is taking a very long time is frustrating but it is not fatal to the enterprise of exposing who did what. The FISA application and renewals were on paper and signed by identifiable people. The White House and UN Ambassador “unmaskings” of US persons left a paper trail. The use of the Steele dossier (and its very interesting manner of compilation) to obtain the FISA warrants are all ripe for exposure. The critical fact being that Trump, as the head of the Executive Branch, can declassify all of these documents. Why he has not done so until now is a bit of a mystery but, on a bet, I would say he is keeping his powder dry as the Mueller farce plays out.

But now we roll around to treason. The lengthy report of the DOJ Inspector General confirmed – as if confirmation were needed – that the “investigation” into Hillary Clinton’s illegal use of a personal server for government business was pro forma at best and a politically motivated whitewash at worst. The FBI’s finest reduced themselves to Keystone Kops in their zeal to protect Hilly (and her henchpeople) from the consequences of her choice to run her own, private, communications setup. It ignored the fact that this server and the classified information which went through it, was almost certainly compromised by multiple enemies and potential enemies of the American State.

There is simply no room for doubt left: Clinton, for her own purposes, created a private communications network which was then compromised by foreign state actors. Now, was this treason per the US Constitution. Probably not.

“Treason against the United States shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.”

Treason requires that an individual actively give support to America’s enemies and while Clinton and her people were grossly negligent, it appears that they were simply too stupid to think through the consequences of the Secretary of State running an insecure server. (Or, as seems more likely, too arrogant to care about those consequences.)

However, despite the learned “Judge” Comely rewriting the standard of proof for the Espionage Act, no requirement of intent to give aid and comfort to America’s enemies is to be found in that Act. In fact, no intent at all is required for an action to attract the effects of that Act. Simply being careless with classified information is enough to attract charges.

If the FBI, at the conclusion of a good faith investigation had recommended charges against Clinton and her staffers, it would have discharged its duty and left the decision to prosecute where it belonged, at the DOJ. Instead, Comely and a number of other FBI staffers conducted a sloppy, irregular investigation and then Comely arrogated the charging authority from the DOJ on the basis of then AG Lynch’s ill advised tarmac meeting with Hilly’s husband Bill. This was entirely improper. The charging decision is the DOJ’s not the FBI’s and if Lynch believed herself compromised, she could easily have recused herself and allowed a deputy to make the call.

It might have gone the same way, but the DOJ exercises a supervisory role with respect to the FBI and an honest DOJ official would have wanted to review the investigation before reaching the odd legal conclusion that the Act required “intent” when it expressly does not.

The farce, shenanigans and near treason all go back to a common origin story: the cack-handed decision to let Hillary walk away from her actions in creating an illegal, private, communications network when she was Secretary of State. Once that decision was made the Intelligence Community, the FBI, the DOJ and the White House had to pray that Hillary would win the election and that these decisions would stay safely swept under the carpet. Some members of those communities did more than pray leading to the FISA applications, the Steele dossier, the unmaskings and the questionable surveillance of the Trump campaign.

It was the mainspring of what FBI man Peter Stzrok described as an “insurance policy”, a means of defeating Trump even if he actually managed to win the election. Because the IC, FBI, DOJ and ex-Obama Whitehouse operatives knew that if Trump won, they all were in huge jeopardy of prosecution for their roles in exonerating Hilly and spying on Trump.

Can’t wait.

Endgame

At the beginning of last week, before the State of the Union and before the release of the Nunes memo, the Democrats could still hold out hope that, somehow the not very Presidential Trump would be taken out either by a rather vigorous reading of the 25th Amendment or by Special Counsel Mueller finally finding proof of Russian collusion and then proof that President Trump covered up that collusion in a manner which would attract an indictment for obstruction of justice. These were pretty implausible to begin with, but after a brilliant performance at the SOTU and the confirmation that the FBI/DOJ played silly buggers with the FISA process I think it is safe to say Trump will be serving out his term.

Which is not to say that the FBI/DOJ follies will now be buried. Quite the opposite. The Nunes memo raises more questions than it answers. And other Committees of both the House and the Senate are investigating the FBI/DOJ as well as the State Department. The behaviour of the top echelons of the FBI/DOJ revealed in the Nunes memo and factually uncontradicted suggests that there was a pattern of partisan behaviour which should never exist in a police force or a Department of State responsible for prosecuting the law. And that pattern of behaviour goes well beyond the (Trump) Russian collusion fable. In the first instance, it raises the question of the Clinton Russian collusion. After all, the DNC and the Clinton campaign financed the efforts of a foreign national to obtain information from, well, Russians to compromise an American Presidential candidate. Those Russian individuals were closely tied to the Russian state. And the Clinton campaign and DNC made it their business to push the dossier into the hands of the FBI/DOJ. How all that happened and how to prevent it from happening again is an obvious matter of national interest.

Then we have the emerging, and very queer tale, of the Clinton emails on the Weiner computer and the bizarre spectacle of FBI Director Comey announcing, ten days before the election, that the Clinton email investigation was being re-opened. It appears that now “retired” Assistant FBI Director McCabe had known about the Clinton emails for a month before it occurred to him to tell the Director that there might be a tiny problem. Comey must have been furious but realized that he had no choice but to re-open the investigation. Particularly as FBI agents in New York, as well as NYPD personnel, were aware of the emails. This might appear to be small potatoes however many political observers suggest that the re-opening of the investigation re-enforced the doubts many people had about Clinton and caused more than a few to stay home rather than vote for the likely criminal Clinton. It may not have added any votes to the Trump tally, but Comey’s announcement certainly took a few away from Mrs. Clinton. Figuring out how that happened and trying to make sure it does not happen again is another, obvious matter of national interest.

We are looking forward to the Inspector General’s Report on the Department of Justice which is likely to focus on the overall behaviour of the department with respect to the Clinton emails and, perhaps, with the decisions surrounding the investigation of the IRS targeting of conservative groups. While the Nunes memo has been attacked as “partisan”, the IG’s report will not be vulnerable to such attack. It should be very interesting and should open up many avenues for Congressional Investigation.

My own view is that the “original sin” of the FBI/DOJ was the decision to ignore the clear wording of the law and find that there was a requirement for “intent” in the law regarding the handling of classified materials. This novel interpretation – apparently worked out by the FBI before it had actually done interviews with the principals involved in the Clinton email disaster – of the law allowed Mrs. Clinton and her people to avoid prosecution. In hindsight that corrupted the FBI in a profound way. The FBI should not interpret the law in any case, that is the DOJ’s responsibility. (The recusal of Mrs. Lynch after her tete a tete with Hilly’s husband needs to be looked into as well.) But if the FBI is stuck interpreting the law it needs to stick to the letter of the law rather than inventing requirements which the law does not contain. While it might have been shocking to see Mrs. Clinton charged it would have been less shocking than seeing the Director of the FBI contort the plain words of a law he is pledged to uphold. (I note that had Clinton and her aides been charged the matter would likely have been pled down to a misdemeanor level and life would carry on. Even with a guilty plea to a minor charge, Hilly would have been in better shape to explain her conduct to an electorate which would likely have forgiven it.)

Digging down to that “original sin” and the circumstances which surrounded will take some time. Time which will only be available if the Republicans can manage to hold at least the Senate and, ideally, the House. In the fevered imaginations of Democratic partisans, the Democratic party will win the House in November and begin impeachment proceedings as soon as a new House of Representatives has been seated. Which is why the SOTU speech and Trump’s overall performance is so important.

To get to the bottom of the Obama administration’s corruption of the justice system in the United States there needs to be a Republican House and Senate. Otherwise, the committees will be chaired by Democrats and all this will be swept thoroughly under the carpet. And for the Republicans to win they need a leader for their party. For better or worse, Trump is that leader and how he does and how he perceived to be doing is critically important. While Trump will never be treated fairly by the American mainstream media, he seems willing to end-run that media. Events like the SOTU give Trump the opportunity to be the President for all Americans. It also gives him the opportunity to underline what a partisan, sour and rather nasty bunch the Democrats actually are. He has nine months to close the sale with the American people. The Democratic Party is broke and in a state of civil war as the “woke” shoot up the “business Democrats” and Mrs. Clinton remains like a bad smell. The Trump tax cuts are about to kick in and the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting 5.5% growth in Q1. American companies are bringing home their offshore billions and showing willing to hire Americans. The Democrats have locked their ankle to the DACA anchor and are seen as putting America last when it comes to immigration. And so on.

To win, Trump and the Republicans do not have to be brilliant, they simply have to be less stupid than the Democrats. Fortunately for Trump this is not difficult.

Memo

While we await the next sock to drop – and where is Sophie – the American political world is fixated on a 4 page memo which summarizes nefarious deeds by the FBI, DOJ and Lord knows who else. Who will be named? What did they do? Apparently, Trump is cool with releasing the memo with few, if any, redactions. The Democrats are calling for Chairman Nunes head because…well, stuff. The FBI is saying it leaves stuff out. The DOJ is claiming release would be reckless.

To be honest I am not expecting much. A bit of confirmation that the “dirty dossier” figured in FISA applications. Possibly a little more information on how the fix was put in to prevent Hilly from being charged. But that will be about it factually.

Which is not really the point. The point is that the Obama administration politicized the DOJ and the FBI. Once that is out with a bit of evidence to back it up, the wheels begin falling off both the Obama administration and the Hillary campaign. Which would not matter much in a normal transition; but the Trump transition was being undermined from the get go. How it was done and who did it matters a lot.

The memo is the first piece of a multi-piece operation. It will, I suspect, give grounds for the appointment of a special counsel to examine the conduct of the FBI and the DOJ vis a vis the Trump transition and the Hillary email decisions. It may not be enough. Enough will likely come with the report of the DOJ Inspector General who is looking into the behavior and the adherence to standards and norms of the DOJ and the FBI in these matters. The memo is a partisan document, the Inspector General’s report is deeply non-partisan.

My argument for voting for Trump – who I did not like going into the election and remain skeptical about now – was always that Hillary was a criminal surrounded by people who were either criminals or indifferent to the law. Trump, foolishly in my view, said he would not charge Hillary. However, as the facts emerge, I suspect it will be out of his hands.

The memo is going to bare certain facts. In themselves, they will be damning but they will also provide the base for further investigation. Those investigations will, gradually, reveal the full extent of the corruption which permeated the Obama White House and the Clintons in all their guises.

For the moment, the memo is knocking down FBI people like nine pins; but they are just the froth on the sewage. The bigger players, Lynch, Powers, Rice, Huma and a host of others need to be exposed, criminally charged and either pled out or sent to jail. The pleas will be interesting. Huma is a dead woman walking because she absolutely knew about the email traffic to Hilly’s “unauthorized” (and, hence, illegal) server. The other ladies unmasked or had quiet chats with Hilly’s husband when her plane happened to meet his.

This will all take a while but if Trump #freesthememo the first step will have been taken.

 

Magnificent Deplorables

Just waiting for the call but AP calls PA. But not the networks.

We’re done.

Hillary is such a useless tool that she is not even going to show up at the Javitts Centre to concede. Podesta is truly revolting. Still counting…yeah, right.

She’s racing to the plane to which ever lair she has prepared.

Donald Trump has won the most remarkable victory in American political history.

And now it is official. A classic Trump speech. Good for Hilly conceding. Trump was gracious but he was Trump.

Let’s go.

Did Trump Close the Deal?

The frenzy of last minute polling in the US Presidential race is suggesting that Trump is even or pulling ahead in several key states. Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Ohio are all in play.

“In play” is not, of course, “in the bag” and the fabled Democratic Party ground operation and saturation advertising may very well deny Trump some or all of these states and many more. Hilly is awful but the Democratic Party may have the organizational capacity – and enough cheating capacity – to, in Obama’s words today in Detroit “carry her”. So it is a reasonable bet that Clinton should be able to win tomorrow.

Unless…Well the polls could very well be wrong. The polling models may well under represent Trump support and over represent Hilly’s. There is no doubt at all that Trump sees more people at his rallies. But does that mean anything?

Hillary’s message throughout the campaign has been that Trump is unfit, racist and not the sort of person America would be safe with. She has cited her own experience and what she seems to think is her better temperment. She has a mountain of detailed policy as one would expect from a front of the class sort of girl.

Trump’s message has been a bit broader – yes, Hilly is a crook; but the whole damned system is rigged. He offers some simple solutions to fairly complex problems. Build the Wall, drop taxes, super vet immigrants from know terrorist areas. But none of that is actually what Trump is selling.

“Make America Great Again” is not so much a policy as a point of view. If you think America has been diminished – economically, geo-politically, culturally – in the last eight years then Trump is offering a direction change. Hillary is not.

Trump’s pitch has two parts: you have to buy into the idea that America is not doing well and you have to believe that Trump somehow represents a useful change of direction. For Trump to close the deal he has to find enough people who believe both parts and those people have to show up and vote.

America is in roughish shape after eight years of Obama. Geo-politically Obama, and his two Secretaries of State, Clinton and Kerry, are leaving America with significantly diminish stature and authority in many parts of the world. Economically, the echos of the 2008 crash are still with us. However, rough shape is not a total disaster. This is not America in 1932:

By inauguration day—March 4, 1933—most banks had shut down, industrial production had fallen to just 56 percent of its 1929 level, at least 13 million wage earners were unemployed, and farmers were in desperate straits. britannica

So are things bad enough for the first part of the #MAGA message to resonate. As with most things, it depends on where you are and who you are. If you are black and living in a city you are certainly no better off than you were eight years ago. If you are white and live in a flyover state you have not had a great eight years (said Bill Clinton at a 2015 closed fundraiser – thank you WikiLeaks). Small businesses have more regulation to deal with and large busineses are finding it more efficient to keep their international profits offshore. A lot of jobs have disappeared and they are not coming back.

Is that enough? I think it may just be. If this is a “change” election there have to be enough people who are miserable enough to actually get out and vote for change. People who remember when they and their kids had jobs and America won the wars it fought.

For Trump to close the deal he has to begin with that miserable base and  then add to it. There are plenty of people who, while they are gainfully employed and still have healthcare, are worried about the deficit, the inability of America to gain good international outcomes, the seemingly endless “nod and wink” corruption in Washington. Socially these are people who would be embarassed to say they were voting for Trump. They may not even say it out loud to themselves. But they are out there – or at least Trump has to hope they are. These are the people who can tip battleground states Trump’s way.

Tomorrow we find out. The left media are predicting a Clinton victory and some of the loonier publications are suggesting a landslide for Hilly. I don’t think there is any landslide potential for the Clinton camp. They might, if everything breaks just right, be able to claim a lopsided Electoral College victory but they don’t seem to have the raw numbers for a landslide.

Neither does Trump. Except. Well I am watching Ted Nuget warming up the crowd in Grand Rapids. Fresh out of deer camp and in camo. It’s about midnight. The room is packed. Ted is rocking it. 4500 people in the room. 51,000 online on YouTube. Lord knows how many on Facebook. Those are actual numbers. Earlier tonight Jon Bon Jovie and Bruce Srpinsteen opened for Hilly. They had 15,ooo in the room and about 10K online. Trump hit a combined You-Tube and Facebook of over 200K.

That’s the landslide. If those actual people show up Trump wins bigly.

I think they will.

650K Emails – The motherlode

WSJ is reporting that there are 650,000 emails on the Abedin/Weiner computer. Apparently, these people have never heard of the delete function.

Now, realistically, you have to think that the vast majority of these will be uninteresting. But the sheer number is intriguing in itself. This is not so much a cache as an archive and from now until Election Day Trump will, legitimately, be asking “An archive of what?”

Will the archive contain all of Hilly’s emails? Perhaps. Or it may simply contain a selection of those damning enough to be Bleachbited. Will it have explicit “pay to play” material showing a nexus of cash between Hilly, the Clinton Foundation, Bill and Huma with Huma acting as the cut-out? What about really classified material? Will Huma’s much speculated about connections to the Muslim Brotherhood be revealed?

Politically the sheer number of emails, dwarfing the 55,000 Hillary maintained were on her server and subject to subpoena – well, those which she decided were work related – is likely to be a story in itself. How did they get on the lap top? Who put them there? Why?

Hilly and her campaign have tried to go after Comey on the basis that it was “inappropriate” for the Director of the FBI to make a statement so close to the election. That line of attack died the instant the 650,000 number came into play.

In fact, as this article in the Daily Mail indicates, Comey realized that he had screwed himself and the FBI when he took his dive in July and failed to indict Hilly. Ignoring 650,000 emails would have led to significant numbers of FBI agents resigning and, realistically, the story would have come out in any event.

The sheer number of emails and the utterly sleazy circumstances surrounding their discovery, would, in any normal election, put Hillary out of the running and off to jail where she belongs. And I think that is where this is going. The polls, a day or two old, showed Trump withing spitting distance of Clinton. This number, 650,000, should be enough to energize Trump supporters and demoralize the poor, college educated, suburban white ladies. And it is a simple enough concept for the low information Hilly supporters to process and understand. I anticipated a low black voter turnout and 650,000 emails should pretty much ensure that happens.

Trump needs to hammer this message for the next nine days and then….landslide.

What does Comey know?

11 days before the General John Comey announces to Congress that there have been emails turned up in another investigation (Weiner’s sexting a 15 year old apparently attracted FBI attention) which “appear to be pertinent to the investigation.” of HRC’s private server.

Comey is not an idiot. If these were emails about yoga arrangements even if they came off the Clinton private server, he would not decide to continue an investigation he effectively, if incorrectly, ended a couple of months ago.

Realistically, these have to be significant. Exactly how significant will emerge as the investigation progresses; but I suspect they are significant enough that:

• the investigating agents could make a clear case that they might change Comey’s earlier conclusion
• that if further investigation was not triggered and the emails came out the FBI would be deeply compromised – even more deeply than when Comey took his dive
• there was no way that they would not be coming out

Comey is an experienced Washington insider. He is not going to launch a torpedo at the good ship HRC 11 days before the Election unless he absolutely has to.

All of which leads me to conclude that whatever the FBI found on Weiner and Huma’s devices is utterly and irrefutably damning. Or it could be wedding planning. Sure it could.

Pinch Hitter

Imagine you were advising Hilly. She is sitting on a slim lead but even going full slime on Trump she is not generating much enthusiasm. She can’t really do press conferences because things like her total lack of recall in written answers to questions about her emails will come up. So what do you do?

Well, first off you pull her off the trail. The problem is that when people see Hilly they leave a bit underwhelmed. She is not terrifically likeable. The Clinton campaign knows this and she has nothing public scheduled until the debate on the 19th.

You could send Bill on the road – which the HRC campaign is doing – but the problem is that people keep showing up at his events and calling him a rapist. Not a good look.

But you have to do something.

Between now and the 25 of October Hilly has one scheduled event, the debate.

So, how about putting the very popular, not unattractive, Michelle Obama out there to shill for Hill?

At the moment MO is not scheduled for much but I expect that will change rather quickly as the HRC campaign realizes that the slime just sort of drips off Trump. And realizes that the Wikileaks are just going to keep coming. And realizes that there is every possibility that one or more disgruntled G-Men are going to void their NDAs and rat out the faux FBI “investigation” of Hilly’s server and subsequent obstruction of justice. All of which will hit in the critical last two weeks of October.

Putting Mrs. Obama out on the road might shore up black support – and get African Americans to actually vote. It also might light a fire under all those college educated women Hilly needs to win.

Worth a shot and Michelle can then pretty much have the Dem nomination in 2020 when Hilly is carried out of the White House for the last time.

 

A very vulgar man

I can’t imagine it comes as any surprise that Donald Trump said rude, arrogant things eleven years ago. I rather suspect he said rude, arrogant, things last week.

The nice girls are shocked. Appalled. But the nice girls were not exactly Trump’s core support. The establishment Republicans are clutching their pearls and lamenting that, somehow, Trump has hijacked the Republican Party and it really shouldn’t be allowed. The National Review has pretty much collapsed into hysterical tears.

I suspect the whole thing will, having been pumped up ahead of tomorrow’s debate and in the wake of the revelations that Hilly is happy to admit she has policies for public consumption and policies she actually believes in private, be forgotten when the debate performances come in.

At this point Trump goes into the debate as the underdog. His last debate performance was panned, he’s on tape sounding like a reality TV star and his poll numbers are dropping. If he actually loses tomorrow he is likely finished. But the concept of “actually losing” involves really being savaged by Hilly and the moderators. Basically being KO’d. That could happen but it is unlikely.

More likely is that he fights even or wins on points. Winning on points, of course, means that he does not make any fatal errors for the media to pounce on.

The other alternative, and one which would be a surprise, is that Trump pays serious attention and just mauls Hilly. He has plenty of ammunition, the problem last time was his lack of focus. If he hits her on trade, immigration, jobs, Benghazi, lying to Congress, lying to the FBI, destroying evidence and obstructing justice and keeps hitting her he could very easily pull out a win.

The pussy remarks, in many ways, inoculate a lot of voters to Trump’s essential vulgarity. He is not a gentleman by any stretch of the imagination. But they also serve to remind the great American electorate of Hilly’s husband actual acts and her willingness to stand by and defend the sexual brutalism of Bill Clinton.

The electorate which is paying attention will assume that the pussy tape was fed to a willing media by the Clinton camp. It was a low and effective blow. But it essentially frees Trump from any gentlemanly constraints in putting Hilly on the mat. If he can.

The chance Trump has tomorrow is to demonstrate that he really is the tough SOB he has projected himself as. Does he have the capacity to knock Hilly down and then, while she is metaphorically lying on the ground, put the boots in so she simply cannot get back up? A technical knock out is useless in a street fight; you need to put your opponent down so they don’t come back at you.

I am not sure Trump is that tough. And I am not sure he is skilful enough to use the ammunition thirty years of Clinton corruption has put at his disposal. If he isn’t he will lose the debate and, likely, the election. But, the pussy tape gives him the social licence to fight hard and just as dirty as he wants.

Can Clinton Win?

Polls are tightening up. Mook is sending out emails to donors suggesting that there is a 40% chance of a Trump victory. The MSM has been reduced to talking about the “Wide Spread Condemnation of Donald Trump Jr.’s Skittles Analogy”. Hilly herself cancelled a fundraiser today without any explanation. The Donald suggested she “sleep well”. The most heavily anticipated American political debate pretty much ever is less than a week away. So, can Hilly win?

The Donald is pretty much even, if not a little ahead, nationally in the polls. His battleground state numbers are improving and there is a bit of momentum being built. The Electoral College is in flux with the Hilly landslide turning into a cliff hanger. But can Hilly win?

Of course she can. In fact, at the moment, Mook is right and Trump has no more than a 40% chance of winning. 60/40 are big odds.

What Hilly has to do to win is to begin to put points on the board. Instead of trying to protect her lead she needs to extend it. She needs to go into the first debate loaded for bear and pull the trigger over and over until there is nothing left on the stage but a bright orange corpse. She knows so much more than The Donald. She’s “been in the room” when murder has been committed on behalf of the United States. She has had the 3:00 AM phone call from Benghazi. She is so qualified that, if she loses, every HR lady in the US will throw up.

As I write, Hilly is going to win. She has to win because, with all her faults, her dishonesty, her criminal behaviour, her catching breaks from the FBI and Justice, her weird twitches and occasional full on seizure, she is the only candidate who understands Washington and can play in the “Bigs”. She knows where the bodies are buried (may have buried some herself), how money flows, how deals are done.

Trump, compared to Hilly, is just a rube. A babe in the Washington woods. No clue about how things are done. No idea that you can’t just bomb the living shit out of ISIS because, well, civilians. And environmental damage.  He’s so dumb he thinks the American President should put America first.

Faced with that, after a few minutes of reflection, and despite actually not liking the woman, American voters, especially those in battleground states who have lost their jobs to H1-B and H2-B replacement workers, could be persuaded that Trump is trouble. That he is going to rock their sinking boats.

To date, Hilly’s campaign has had a Wall of policy with many bullet points each addressing a micro-slice of a carefully focus-grouped and surveyed public. No broad brush here, Hilly is a pointillist with a bit of pigment for every, tiny, patch of the American world. She saves her palette knife for larding shade on Trump.

To win, Hilly has to slime Trump so thoroughly that even his supporters will feel a bit dirty voting for him.

So, can she win?

Trump keeps having these biggish rallies. 10,000 here, 8,000 there, 20,000 over there. People line up. They may be deplorable but they are not ashamed.

Unless Hilly can make them feel ashamed. Make them understand why it is a good thing to welcome unknown refugees and damn police officers for doing an impossible duty, accept that it is important to make a “deal” with Iran and that Israel is actually rather nasty, understand that the job they lost to an H1-B worker or an illegal worker will make them better off in the long run, she is not going to win.

But, if she can make terrorism un-Islamic and black people think the Democrats actually give a rat’s ass about the inner cities, there is no doubt at all that Hilly can win.

But I wouldn’t put any money on it.

To win you have to show up. To win, you have to make sense. To win, you have to make people understand that you will put America first, that you will put them first.

Hilly can’t close that sale because she has no clue what those words even mean.