Monthly Archives: December 2015

It’s over

As I write the world’s media, having hyped global warming and the Paris COP21 for the last six months, is trying to figure out what is in the so called historical agreement.

The short answer is: not much. There are some pious promises to meet each country’s goals – promises which are to be monitored by the countries themselves. And there is a really sincere promise to “mobilize” that 100 billion to help the developing world which was promised at the last COP and, as I recall, the COP before that.

There is inadvertently honest paragraph 17 which acknowledges that the national promises will lead to 55 gigatons of CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2030 which is 12 percent rise from the 2014 level of 49Gt. Para 17 also notes that the promised reductions will lead to a rise in temperature over 2 degrees.

Naomi Klein is disappointed and James Hansen has declared COP21 a fraud in the Guardian.

For those of us who are sceptical about the CO2 theory of global warming, the entire Rio to Kyoto to Copenhagen to Paris ¬†exercise has always been more annoying than substantive. the great and the good were meeting to discuss a “problem” and a “solution” which rested on shakey, untested science.

But the good news out of Paris, the signing of an entirely toothless, legally non-binding, document hailed by media and politicos alike as “the end of the fossil fuel era” is the high water mark of the loony Green war on CO2.

Never again will the green world manage to get the media attention that COP21 has received. And without that attention an already indifferent public will turn to other issues.

Better still, the global warming/climate change scam needed increasing temperatures to keep it alive. It needed shrinking sea ice and rising sea levels. It needed “the evidence” to either support the “consensus view” (itself a statistical fraud) or at least not contradict that view. There is every indication that the “pause” may be a prelude to a decade or two of global cooling.

There is not a climate model used by the IPCC which predicts or even has a mechanism which might explain a statistically significant fall in temperature. When this year’s El Nino is finished -likely quite soon – the temporary goosing of the temperature record will be done as well. Normally, after an El Nino there will be a cooling La Nina. Depending on how cooling that turns out to be, it may very well be sufficient to turn the global temperature record negative in the face of continuously rising CO2 levels.

Given that the bogus Paris document is predicated on the IPCC models linking temperature to CO2, when those models collapse the scientific scam will be over. Without the “science” the overall “climate change to transfer wealth” scheme will lose the little momentum it has left.

With the Paris flim flam in hand the political classes will have “saved the world” and will, I expect, start trying to change the subject. Quickly.

It’s over.

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Saturday Pleasures

Taking a break from the rain and the phony delight of the warmists faced with the half-baked loaf of Paris, I was reading a wonderful appreciation of Anthony Powell written by the much missed Christopher Hitchens in 1998 for the New York Review of Books. At the very bottom of Hitchens piece was this lovely footnote which will, perhaps, only amuse me. No matter, it is my blog:

  1. Sir Charles Powell, former chief political advisor to Margaret Thatcher, pronounces his name Pole-style. Jonathan Powell, chief of staff to Prime Minister Tony Blair, is a staunch Towellist. The fact that the two men are brothers makes Anthony Powell seem more of an English social realist than he is sometimes credited with being.

Paris Plop

Heading into the final hours of COP21 – even with the traditional 24 hour extension – it is pretty apparent that:

  • there will be no legally binding agreement – John Kerry himself has finally acknowledged that he couldn’t get it through Congress
  • that the West is not actually willing to give the less developed nations of the world trillions of dollars to deal with “climate change” and the damage already suffered due to so called¬†“historic emissions”
  • that whatever agreement is finally signed – and there is always an agreement even if it is only to meet again – the wind has gone out of the climate alarmist sails
  • that this entire exercise is not about science and it is barely about climate, rather it is about using a scare to force the West to transfer massive amounts of money to the developing world

The amusing part of the entire charade is that, when you look at the world relative to its state in 1992 when the whole climate madness began in Rio, the less developed world has radically developed.

India had a purchasing power parity GDP of 1124 billion in 1992, it was 7375 billion in 2014.

China had a purchasing power parity GDP of 1438.13 billion in 1992, it was 17617 billion in 2014.

Unsurprisingly, India is none too eager to stop buring fossil fuels and China’s great concession has been to accept unlimited growth in emissions until 2030 when, it really does promise to start reducing emissions.

Whack-a-doodle warmists and greenies will, as per usual, be sad when the Paris Conference ends with a non-enforcable damp squib of a not-a-treaty agreement. The more intelligent of them will be very depressed indeed because the wheels continue to fall of the science as the Pause lengthens, the models depart further from the observations and, oops, Arctic ice extent is the highest its been in a decade.

icecover_current

The “science” behind the climate hysteria is crumbling and the green dream of a reversion to horse and buggy days is collapsing faster than the price of oil. The fake consensus is under attack, the models are failing and, despite the great and the good all claiming that we’ll all be baked, the general public has turned away from global warming alarm.

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Main Event

Hippo_fightJust for fun, imagine that The Donald wins the GOP nomination and that Hilly avoids jail long enough to win the Democratic nod…then Debates.

Donald: You lied to the American People about Benghazi.

Hilly: Did not. Prove it. Bigot. War on Women.

Donald: You said (reference – which Trump will get right) there were no forces available to protect the compound. There were.

Hilly: Video. Planned Parenthood. Inequality. And those Black Lives really do matter. Fascist.

Donald: You’re a real piece of work.

Hilly: Bankrupt. Fake hair. 1%. Europe.

Donald: Obama. You were his Secretary of State. Monica, Paula, Gennifer (etc)…Clinton Foundation bribes.

Hilly: Global warming! Muslims! My sweet Huna…Rosebud.

I was saying to my sainted 90-year-old, sharp as a box of tacks, mother tonight that I watch American politics primarily for the entertainment value. This season looks to be must watch TV.

 

 

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Trumped

The political classes have, as one, internationally denounced Trump’s call for a ban on all Muslim immigration to America.

The howls of indignation, the Hitler comparisons, the cries of racist: Trump, once again has said the unspeakable and, this time, for sure, his campaign must surely be over.

I suspect Trump is going to keep going. Saying the unspeakable so that other, more skillful, politicians have the room to actually say some of the things which need to be said. The big winner will be Senator Cruz whose hardline positions are being mainstreamed every time Trump bellows.

That and Hilly being caught lying, again, about Benghazi and there being evidence there were deployable military assets all combine to make US politics the fascinating spectacular it usually is.

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